The number of rental homes in the Netherlands will decline in the coming years. A large majority of investors and housing associations intend to sell more rental housing. As the rental housing stock decreases, rents in the non-regulated segment are expected to continue rising in the years ahead. Investments in new rental housing are therefore urgently needed. Investors have €27 billion available for investments in rental housing over the next three years.The financial feasibility of new projects is under increasing pressure. This places an important responsibility on the new Dutch cabinet to ensure that this capital can actually be deployed. Housing associations also require greater support in the delivery of new affordable rental housing. Senior housing remains a key area of attention. At present, only 10% of the annual new-build ambition in this segment is being realised. Municipalities have an important role to play here. These findings are among the results of market research by Capital Value in collaboration with ABF Research into developments in the Dutch housing market.
Dutch rental stock declines
Rental supply declines as investors and housing associations sell more rental homes
Both investors and housing associations are increasingly selling rental homes. According to the Dutch Cadastre (Kadaster), 26,180 rental homes have been sold through individual unit sales over the past four quarters. Investors are opting more often for individual sales due to higher tax burdens and lower yields from continued rental operations. Capital Value’s research shows that 83% of housing associations are selling assets more frequently in order to free up capital for new investments. In addition, 47% indicate that they are using sales proceeds to finance the sustainability of their portfolios. This aligns with recent statements from the Housing Associations Authority (Autoriteit Woningcorporaties), which has warned of a looming funding shortage in the sector.
Arjan Peerboom, CEO of Capital Value: “Housing associations clearly require more supportive measures from the new cabinet to finance the unprofitable component of new developments. This includes fully abolishing corporate income tax, rather than allowing it to rise to €250 million per year from 2028 onwards.”
The decline in the rental housing stock is most pronounced in the major cities. In Amsterdam, the share of private investors fell from 7.4% to 6.2%, corresponding to a reduction of approximately 5,000 rental homes. As a result, rental supply is shrinking precisely in the most strained markets, further increasing pressure on the urban rental sector. Purchases of new-build rental housing by investors in 2025 and 2026 will only become visible in completed deliveries from 2027/2028 onwards. The expectation is that individual sales will continue in 2026. More than half of the investors and housing associations surveyed indicate that they plan to increase the sale of rental homes in the coming years.
Rents in the non-regulated sector continue to rise
There is a growing risk that, due to the severe shortage of rental housing, affordability in the non-regulated sector will come under increasing pressure. Supply has declined sharply over the past four years, while rents in the non-regulated segment have continued to rise. Even larger rent increases are expected upon tenant turnover than those recently reported by NVM. In 2025, the average rent for a non-regulated-sector apartment increased by 7.7%, while available supply was 22% lower than in 2024.
Housing shortage rises to 410,000 homes before starting to decline
In 2025, the housing shortage in the Netherlands stood at 4.8% of the total housing stock. As approximately 80,600 households were added last year while the housing stock increased by only around 70,000 homes, Capital Value expects the shortage to rise to approximately 410,000 homes. From 2027 onwards, the shortage may begin to decline, depending on the number of housing completions in 2026–2027.
According to the Primos forecast, the national government’s objective of reducing the housing shortage to 2% by 2031 will not be achieved. In that year, the housing shortage is expected to remain at 3.9% of the housing stock. The previous government target of delivering 980,000 homes by 2030 is also unlikely to be met and may only be achieved in 2032.
Number of building permits declines by 8.4%
New housing construction entered a downturn in 2025. As a result of the low number of building permits issued in 2023, only 69,200 new-build homes were completed in 2025. Since more permits were granted in 2024, completions are expected to increase substantially in 2026 to around 88,400 homes. Whether this higher level of production will continue in 2027 remains uncertain. In 2025, the number of building permits is expected to total 86,000, representing a decline of 8.4% compared to 2024. In addition, rising mortgage interest rates at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 may negatively affect sales of new-build homes scheduled for completion in 2027.
Strong investment appetite with €27 billion available, growing focus on impact investing
Investors are approaching the residential investment market with greater confidence in the coming years than in 2024. This is reflected in the amount of capital available for investments in the Dutch residential investment market over the next three years, which has increased to €22.9 billion—up 22% compared to 2024. An additional €4 billion is available for healthcare real estate, bringing total available capital to €27 billion.
Institutional investors in particular have embedded impact objectives in their long-term strategies and explicitly incorporate societal challenges such as affordability, population ageing, and care-suitable housing into their investment decisions.
Thijs Konijnendijk, Director Research & Data Intelligence at Capital Value: “It is positive news that Dutch institutional investors, in particular, are actively investing in affordable rental housing. Whether this available capital can actually be deployed over the next three years will depend, among other factors, on the stability of the investment climate, fiscal measures, interest rates, and the supply of new-build projects. Continued support for the investment climate and the development pipeline is essential if we are to reduce the housing shortage.”
Role of international investors smaller than ever
The Dutch residential investment market offered limited attractive investment opportunities for international investors in 2025. As a result, the share of international investors in total transaction volume declined to 7%, the lowest level on record. The long-term average share stands at 26%. It is also becoming increasingly clear that international investors are reducing their holdings in the Netherlands by selling to Dutch investors or to private buyers through individual unit sales. The stock of rental housing owned by international investors declined to just over 72,500 homes in 2025, down from approximately 80,000 rental homes in 2024.
International investors surveyed indicate that they would be willing to increase investments in Dutch rental housing, provided the investment climate improves. The absence of international investors from the Dutch market represents a missed opportunity. Historically, they have made an important contribution to the Dutch rental housing market, investing in large-scale new-build projects as well as developments targeting specific groups such as first-time renters and seniors.
More senior housing needed: 3.12 million elderly households by 2035
€4 billion is available for investments in healthcare real estate in the coming years, representing an increase of 42% compared to 2024. However, supply in this segment remains insufficient to meet the national ambition of delivering 30,000 care-suitable homes per year. In 2025, investors delivered 1,800 new care-suitable homes, representing just 6% of the annual target. Housing associations also add care-suitable homes each year. While figures for 2025 are not yet available, total annual additions in recent years did not exceed 4,000 homes.
Thijs Konijnendijk: “Municipalities play a key role in increasing supply by explicitly including care-suitable housing targets in new development plans. Enabling more seniors to move would provide a significant boost to mobility within the housing market.”
Feasibility of new-build projects under pressure
The financial feasibility of new-build projects delivering affordable rental housing is under increasing pressure. In 2025, 44% of surveyed developers converted rental housing programmes into owner-occupied housing. Parties are also increasingly citing grid congestion as a significant constraining factor.
Arjan Peerboom: “In recent years, substantial efforts have been made in project planning and development. For the coming years, significant pension fund capital is available in particular for the construction of affordable rental housing. The cabinet has an important responsibility to ensure that this capital can actually be deployed. We advise moving swiftly on fiscal optimisation measures for investors and housing associations as outlined in the coalition agreement, and to implement these measures as soon as possible. Only if government and market translate plans into action will it be possible to reach 100,000 building permits in 2026. In addition to institutional investors, international investors, private investors, and housing associations are all essential to delivering sufficient new rental housing over the long term. Only through joint efforts can the scale of the housing construction challenge be addressed.”