The housing shortage in the Netherlands currently stands at 398,000 homes, representing 4.8% of the total housing stock. The rental housing market is under pressure due to a decline in the mid-rental segment. The number of households in the Netherlands currently amounts to 8.43 million. While growth continues, the pace is expected to moderate in the coming years. More moderate household growth, combined with additions to the housing stock through new-build, should lead to a gradual reduction of the housing shortage in the years ahead.
Demographics and housing stock
Development in number of households
Number of households grows, size declines
As of 1 January 2025, the Netherlands has 8.43 million households. Since 2015, the number of households has increased by an average of 76,000 per year. This growth is primarily driven by population growth, ageing and increasing individualisation. At the same time, average household size is declining and has fallen from 2.17 to 2.10 over the past ten years. According to the Primos forecast 2025, this average is expected to decrease further over the longer term.
Pace of household growth gradually slowing
In recent years, the Netherlands has experienced strong household growth. This was primarily driven by labour, student and refugee migration, as well as by individualisation and population ageing. Further growth is still expected in the coming years, but the pace is gradually slowing. This is partly due to the lower population forecast by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and expectations that immigration will be less extensive in the coming years. According to the Primos forecast 2025, the number of households will increase by 854,000 between 2025 and 2039, representing growth of 10.1%. Annual growth is projected to decline step by step, from 80,600 households in 2025 to 34,400 in 2039.
Regional differences
Strongest growth in Flevoland
Up to 2040, the number of households is expected to increase across almost the entire Netherlands. The strongest growth is projected in Flevoland (+22.4%). Zuid-Holland, Noord-Holland, Utrecht, Noord-Brabant and Overijssel are also expected to see substantial increases, with growth rates ranging between 9% and 15%. In a limited number of regions, a slight decline is anticipated. In Zeeuws-Vlaanderen, Zuid-Limburg and Delfzijl, the number of households is projected to decrease by between 1.5% and 4% by 2040.
Young people live at home for longer
Since the 2008 financial crisis, housing construction has lagged significantly behind household growth. As a result of persistent tightness in the housing market, young people are, on average, leaving the parental home at an increasingly later age. Since 2010, the share of young people aged 18 to 24 living at home has increased. This trend was reinforced in 2015 by the abolition of the student basic grant.
Older age groups also increasingly live at home
Housing shortages have contributed to a rising share of people living at home among older age groups as well. In the 25–29 age group, this share has increased by 6 percentage points since 2010. A similar trend is visible among those aged 30–34, although to a lesser extent (+2 percentage points). Since 2021, the share of people living at home in the youngest age group has declined, likely as a result of the National Action Plan for Student Housing and the reintroduction of the student basic grant in 2023. However, following a sharp decline in 2024, a slight increase is again visible in 2025. For households aged over 23, the share of people living at home continues to increase.
Development of housing tenures among young households up to 2035
Majority lives in a rental home
Of the more than 1.03 million young households aged under 30, the majority live in rental housing. In the Primos Housing Market (Socrates) 2025 baseline scenario, the share of young households living in rental housing increases from 48% to 51% by 2035. At the same time, the total number of young households declines by approximately 40,000 over this period.
By contrast, the number of young people living in ‘Occupied Other Spaces’ (OOS) is expected to decline sharply. This category includes households living with another household, occupying a room with shared facilities, or living in a houseboat or caravan. Such housing situations are relatively common among young people.
In 2026, around 353,000 young households live in OOS (34% of all young households). This number is expected to decrease to 281,000 by 2035 (28% of the total). This decline is linked to expectations that the housing shortage will ease towards 2035 and that the housing market will gradually relax. As a result, opportunities for young people to live in regular, self-contained homes are expected to increase. As in the rental sector, the number of young people living in owner-occupied housing is also expected to rise.
Student housing
Supply declines, shortage increases
Supply of student housing is expected to decline in the coming years, despite planned student housing developments in many municipalities. This is due to a reduction in the number of student homes offered by private landlords as individual rental homes are sold. In the Reference Scenario (lower bound of demand), demand is also expected to decline in the coming years, but less sharply than supply, resulting in a further increase in the shortage.
In the High-Demand Scenario (upper bound of demand), demand is projected to increase further compared with the current situation. Combined with the declining supply, this leads to a significant increase in the overall student housing shortage under this scenario.
Development of the housing stock
Distribution of households
Approximately 39% of households live in rental housing, including 2.6 million households in regulated rental housing and 662,000 households in the liberalised segment. A total of 54% of households own an owner-occupied home. Nearly 1.9 million households live in owner-occupied homes priced up to €355,000, 1.3 million households occupy homes priced between €355,000 and €485,000, and 1.4 million households live in higher-priced owner-occupied homes valued above €485,000. In addition, there is a substantial group of 620,000 households living in OOS (7.3%).
Decline share of mid-rental homes held by private investors
In 2025, the housing stock increased by 70,400 homes. This was 8,400 fewer than in 2024 and reflects the construction downturn. Owner-occupied housing accounts for the largest share of the stock (57%) and contributed 96% of total growth (67,400 homes). According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), only 3,900 rental homes were added. The number of rental homes owned by housing associations increased by 10,000, while the rental stock held by investors and other owners declined by 6,100 homes. This decline is the result of more individual homes being sold than added through new-build, transformations or subdivisions.
To properly interpret this development in the context of record levels of investment in new-build in 2025, it is important to note that housing completions in 2025 result from investments made in 2023, one of the weakest years for the residential investment market.
Investor portfolio composition shifting
As a result of higher levels of individual sales in 2025 and relatively limited additions from earlier investments, the holdings of institutional investors declined by 6,000 homes. While the number of rental homes owned by private investors remained broadly stable, the composition of their portfolios has shifted markedly. In 2024, 41% of their holdings consisted of mid-rental homes and 27% of liberalised rental housing. By 2025, this had shifted to 31% mid-rental and 42% liberalised rental housing. This shift indicates that private investors are withdrawing from the mid-rental segment and acquiring liberalised rental homes.
The fact that total private investor holdings remain largely unchanged compared with 2024 is partly explained by the CBS measurement methodology, which records the housing stock as of 1 January 2025. In addition, institutional investors have sold substantial volumes to private investors, who subsequently often sell these homes into the owner-occupied market. As a result, the private rental stock is also expected to continue to decline in the coming years.
Housing shortage
Housing shortage remains structurally high
In 2025, the housing shortage in the Netherlands stands at 4.8% of the total housing stock. This level is expected to remain unchanged until 2027, after which the shortage will gradually decline. According to the Primos forecast, the national government’s objective to reduce the housing shortage to 2.0% by 2031 will not be achieved. In 2031, the housing shortage is projected to amount to 3.9% of the housing stock.
After 2031, the housing shortage is expected to continue to decline, but the national target level of 2.0% will only be reached over a longer time horizon. At a regional level, some areas are expected to reach a shortage of 2.0% at an earlier stage. Achieving this reduction in the housing shortage depends on migration declining in line with expectations and housing construction volumes being delivered as projected.
22
%housing shortage is the national ambition
4,84,8
%the national Dutch housing shortage in 2026
Shortage most pronounced in Randstad regions
In 2025, the housing shortage expressed as a percentage of the housing stock is most pronounced in the COROP regions of Delft and Westland (7.5%), Greater Amsterdam (7.1%) and the Hague Agglomeration (6.5%). In Delfzijl and surrounding areas, there is no housing shortage. In Zeeuws-Vlaanderen, the shortage stands at 1.5%, below the target level of 2.0%, meaning there is no catch-up requirement. Overall, housing shortages in the peripheral regions of the Netherlands are significantly smaller than in the western and central parts of the country.
Looking ahead to 2040
Looking towards 2040, both the housing stock and the number of households are expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than at present. By that time, the Netherlands is projected to have approximately 9.32 million homes, while the number of households is expected to reach around 9.28 million. Despite this, a sufficient balance between housing demand and supply will not yet have been achieved.
The housing market does not consist solely of private households occupying permanent homes on a long-term basis. It also includes institutional households that are not captured in the figures above, homes occupied by households that are not officially registered at the address (such as labour migrants), houses used as second homes or holiday homes and therefore not permanently occupied, as well as households living in OOS. These factors are taken into account when estimating future housing demand and the housing shortage.
Note
The projected development of the housing stock and the housing shortage can only be achieved if the planned supply is actually realised as assumed in the Primos model. In practice, this depends on various constraints, including capacity limitations in the construction sector, grid congestion, permitting procedures and similar factors. Even if housing construction up to 2040 proceeds in line with Primos assumptions, the forecasts indicate that a housing shortage of approximately 201,800 homes (2.2% of the housing stock) will still remain in 2040.
In the years leading up to 2040, the quantitative housing shortage (in absolute numbers) is expected to decline, but the challenge will increasingly shift towards a qualitative mismatch between housing types and housing demand. In particular, shortages of housing for young people and older households are expected to become more pronounced.
Investors participating in this study indicate that the expected level of the housing shortage and anticipated demographic developments play a positive or very positive role in the attractiveness of the residential investment market in 2040.
